Future Runoff Variation and Flood Disaster Prediction of the Yellow River Basin Based on CA-Markov and SWAT

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the future runoff change Yellow River Basin under combined effect land use and climate based on Cellular automata (CA)-Markov Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). changes in average runoff, high extreme intra-annual distribution middle 21st century are analyzed. following conclusions obtained: (1) Compared with base period (1970–1990), Tangnaihai, Toudaoguai, Sanmenxia Lijin hydrological stations (2040–2060) all shows an increasing trend, probability flood disaster also tends increase; (2) Land use/cover (LUCC) status quo continuation scenario will increase possibility disasters; (3) spring proportion four a decreasing which increases risk drought spring. winter (4) monthly decrease April, May, June, July October. January, February, August, September December.